Below is a table comparing the Rebecca Cave's results in this 2007 primary with the results of 2005. (Click on the image below to see a readable image of the spreadsheet.)
By looking at the results on a precinct-by-precinct basis, we can see where Cave has gained or lost support since she first ran two years ago, and how her campaign strategy has played in the field.
A few observations stand out to me.
- Although she is an incumbent, Cave's percentage of the primary vote declined by 9 points between 2007 and 2005.
- Turnout was up in every precinct in the city. However, only in 4 precincts (1, 2, 15, 16) did Cave's votes increase more than turnout for that precinct. In 12 of 16 precincts, Cave got a smaller percentage of the vote this year.
- In fact, in 7 of 16 precincts, Cave received fewer raw votes in 2007 than 2005, despite the higher turnout.
- Cave received fewer raw votes in 3 of the 5 precincts where she did best in 2005; her percentage performance declined in 4 of the 5.
- The worst change for Cave was in her home precinct, Precinct 10, where she lost almost half of her voters – 37 votes in 2007 versus 72 in 2005, and a decline in vote share from 74% to 33%.
- Cave's best performance was in Precinct 16, where she and her allies on the council have worked very hard to win over residents with the South Leg moratorium, with some success.
- The three precincts where Cave did best are home to her allies: P2 (Mayor Longrie), P15 (allied candidate Rokke), and P16 (Councilmember Hjelle).